Some
U.S. states face so much pressure to fund pensions for public
employees that it could hurt their credit ratings, Moody's Investors
Service said on Thursday.
As concerns grow over the
financial health of many states after the 2007-2009 recession and how
they will cut spending to cope, the ratings agency combined pension and
debt data to rank the liabilities of each state.
In
the past, Moody's evaluated credit risks from pensions and debt levels
separately. Lower credit ratings could raise the costs to states of
borrowing money.
Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky,
Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey and Rhode Island, along with
Puerto Rico, have the largest debt-and-pension loads, Moody's found.
Nebraska and South Dakota have the lowest.
"Large
and growing debt and pension burdens have been, and will continue to
be, contributing factors in rating changes," Moody's said.
Problems
with pensions -- which states have underfunded by at least $700
billion -- include weak returns on investments, not enough money set
aside, impending retirements of "Baby Boomers" born in the late 1940s
through mid-1960s, and Americans living longer, Moody's said.
New
York, Delaware and California are often cited for large debt burdens
but do not have the highest combined long-term liabilities, Moody's
analyst Ted Hampton said in a statement.
"In general, states'
rankings for debt and pension combined parallel their rankings for debt
alone," Hampton said but he added: "not all states with large debt
burdens also suffer from weak pension funding."
IN THE TRILLIONS?
The
$700 billion underfunded figure is a conservative estimate for how
much money states will need to cover the pension promises they have
made to their employees.
But $3 trillion could be nearer the
mark, one study warned last year. States expect too generous a return
on investments made by their pension funds, said the study by Joshua
Rauh of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
Regardless of the exact amount, states have to find a way to adequately fund pensions.
"More
and more, it's going to take up a larger share of their ... budgets,"
said Kil Huh, director of research at Pew Center on the States, which
has been closely following the pension issue.
Money
flows from three major sources into pension funds: employee
contributions, the employing governments and investment returns.
"Employee
contributions have gone down and, at the same time, employer
contributions because of the fiscal crisis haven't been there," Huh
said.
Moody's, too, says the problem is getting bigger.
"Unfunded
pension liabilities have grown more rapidly in recent years because of
weaker-than-expected investment results, previous benefit enhancements
and, in some states, failure to pay the full annual required
contribution," the report said.
"Moreover, pension liabilities may be understated because of current governmental accounting standards," it added.
The
Moody's report "will shed more light upon the states which have
eliminated or underfunded their yearly contributions for pension
liabilities simply as a way to manage their finances," said Thomson
Reuters Senior Market Strategist Daniel Berger.
One
dramatic solution to the pension problem would be allowing states to
declare bankruptcy, which some congressional Republicans want. Then,
they could renege on pension promises made to employees.
After
being criticized for missing risks in the housing boom, Moody's is
showing with this report it's "not asleep at the wheel" on the pension
threat, said Richard Larkin, senior vice president and director of
credit analysis at Herbert J Sims & Co. in New York.
But, the
report also showed the liabilities are manageable, he added. For
example, Moody's found Hawaii's pension-and-debt load is equal to 16.2
percent of its gross domestic product, the biggest proportion of all the
states.
Even though the liabilities are in the billions of dollars, "when you compare them to GDP it's still low numbers," Larkin said.
"And
it's still relatively much lower than these problem countries people
keep comparing them to," he said, referring to recent fears that
California or Illinois will soon be plunged into troubles similar to
those Greece or Ireland are facing.
In a separate article, Simone Baribeau of Bloomberg reports, Moody's Says Massachussetts Among States With Highest Debt, Pension Burden:
style="text-align: center;">/> [style="text-decoration: underline;">Ed. note: This post is authored by Evan Jowers and Robert Kinney of Kinney Recruiting, sponsor of the Asia Chronicles. Kinney has made more placements of U.S. associates and partners in Asia than any other firm in the past four years. You can reach them by email: asia at kinneyrecruiting dot com.]
Evan here. Please check out our daily blog at www.theasiachronicles.com where we will have more posts than those that appear here. Today, for example, we have this post and also a post from Alexis Lamb regarding the Singapore market – “Singapore Swing.”
Please note that Robert Kinney and I will be working from our Hong Kong offices for a few weeks later this month and can be available for meetings with our readers then. Alexis, of course, is based permanently in Hong Kong.
Three Quick hits of the day (a new feature at theasiachronicles.com): One US firm in Hong Kong now has an expat / cola allowance of over $90,000 for single associates and over $100,000 for married associates; Almost every strong US cap markets practice in HK / China is hiring lateral associates now; It has recently become more common for US and UK firms in Singapore to offer an expat / cola allowance, albeit much smaller than in HK (for years, most firms offered no allowance in Singapore).
While interviewing for a US associate position in Asia can be quite different from interviewing for a spot down the street in New York or another major domestic market there are also some similarities to a job search in any domestic market. The key determining factors on whether you will have a chance at interviewing are top firm experience and impressive law school academics. The other obvious factor determining whether you will be asked to interview, at least for most positions in Asia, is language skills (Mandarin, Korean, Japanese). id="more-56969">
However, once you are in an interview, whether by phone, VC or in person, your stellar resume is not going to help you as much as it would in an interview for a US position. Overseas partners are looking for the right personality fit much more so than in a large domestic office. A major reason for this is because the offices are much smaller overseas, making it harder to hide a misfit (even a junior associate can be the face of the firm), but there are other reasons as well.
At a basic level, the factors that are especially important to demonstrate in an interview overseas are these:
• you have an entrepreneurial nature;
• you have a high level of maturity for your experience level;
• you have an outgoing personality (not overly “academic” in nature);
• you are able to fit in with different cultures;
• your personal presentation is generally positive; and
• you are a team player (no prima donnas need apply)
• you have a demonstrated interest / connection to your target market
These are obviously all factors that are relevant in any interview at least as “plus factors”, but these particular factors are especially important in Asia.
Keep in mind that within minutes of your first interview, most partners can pretty much figure out whether you have these attributes. Any of us at Kinney Recruiting can figure this out about candidates we speak to in minutes as well.
There is a much less structured environment for associates in busy overseas U.S. practices (at the smaller offices or newer practice groups it can be similar to working in a exciting start-up company, albeit one extremely well financed).
The market is such in Asia, especially in China, that firm clients are not nearly as institutionalized as in the major US markets. Sure, many US firms in Asia opened offices there initially to follow major clients. Nevertheless, the pitch environment is much more of a free-for-all in Asia, especially in China. A firm not being on the preferred vendors list at an i-bank, fund or other entity often does not even prevent representation from happening in Asia (while it is more difficult, a series of one time waivers for a firm by a client are not uncommon). In China especially, considering all the state run enterprise business, the vast majority of the IPOs being handled by PRC banks, and many emerging companies and funds, there is a lot of pitching going on by firms for this work. Further, while in New York deals are done mainly over the phone, in Asia there are a lot of in-person meetings throughout the process.
Needless to say, there is a lot of client contact for even junior associates, especially when in China a non-Chinese partner may be leaning heavily on his Mandarin-fluent associates for a lot more than due diligence. Mid-level associates in Asia are typically running their own deals.
In many instances in Asia your training is one-on-one mentoring from a partner or two, quite commonly with no senior associates in between.
Maturity is especially important in Asia because associates are given as much responsibility as they can handle. Simply put, a mature person can balance his or her workload between competing demands more than an immature one. There can be a lot of travel to meet with major clients and each associate, no matter how junior, is usually a vital part of their office’s overall practice and client development and retention. Each associate is also expected to be a self-starter and figure out things on the fly much more than is the case in a domestic office of the same firm.
The smaller offices of course make personality fit and personal presentation more important, for obvious reasons. As an associate at a top U.S. practice in Asia, you are more of a vital piece of the entire office’s practice and your personality is going to directly affect the firm’s practice. Senior partners overseas, especially those that moved to Asia from U.S. offices, have in many cases put a tremendous amount of effort (and some career risk) into building their book of business and reputation in a foreign country. Thus, they can take a lot of pride in their accomplishments, as they should. Understandably they want to avoid placing their reputation and practice in the hands of an associate with whom they do not have a strong personality fit or who cannot be counted on to be at his or her best every day.
As an associate in a large New York (or other major US market) office, with hundreds of attorneys, you surely know a number of very impressive young associate colleagues who are perhaps a bit over academic, but perform just fine in that large office environment. However, being too academic and not well rounded will not serve well in an entrepreneurial and less structured environment of a busy small overseas US corporate practice of a top firm. We have seen countless cases where the less impressive candidate on paper wins out over the more impressive resumed candidates, due to being better rounded and the right personality fit.
Most US partners who have been in Asia for a few years or more have experienced a hire gone bad simply because the US associate ultimately could not commit to the geographic market. Asia, especially China, is hot now and is considered “the place to be.” There are many very well intentioned and able young professionals in the US who believe they would like to relocate there, but ultimately find out later that the region is not for them. Thus, many US partners will take a jaded approach into an interview with a US associate who does not have an obvious connection to the particular target Asia market. Of course, a connection to the market is not a requirement to land there (if it were, most partners you are interviewing with would never have landed there to begin with), but the lack of a strong connection will need to be dealt with in an interview. It is ok to want to be in Hong Kong, for example, because it is an exciting market, has great deal flow, and you have visited there a few times, but the message has to be conveyed loud and clear in an interview and you need to be prepared to take on this elephant in the room early.
Keep in mind that U.S. firms have more risk with hires they make overseas, due to the high level of responsibility each associate has, and also because associates are simply less fungible in small, busy overseas offices. The past two years of economic downturn in the West caused full and partial hiring freezes at firms globally, even during most of the recent 20 months boom in China. Many U.S. practices in Asia have found themselves to be severely understaffed when just one or two associates leave, combined with increased deal flow. In a busy and competitive lateral hiring market in Asia, it can easily take a U.S. practice up to six months to replace a key associate that has not worked out.
Further, there is the added cost a firm takes on when hiring a U.S. associate lateral, especially if from the U.S. markets, such as annual housing / expat packages (which can run from $40,000 to $140,000 depending on the Asia market and firm) and international relocation costs, which includes up to two months in a luxury serviced apartment. Some firms even handle private school tuition for associates’ children.
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